The story of Purim contains a universal truth that is especially relevant today: intense hubris is always followed by a downturn and intense contrition precedes an upturn.
The trends found in the story of Purim should be familiar to us especially this year. At the beginning of the Purim story things are relatively good for the Jews. They were in good standing with the government and their leader Mordechai had a high ranking position in the king’s court. They were invited to the royal party despite Mordechai’s call for them not to. The Jews felt powerful and secure as good citizens of the Persian Empire. They could not have been more wrong.
Things started to deteriorate when King Achashverosh killed his wife Queen Vashti and Haman was elevated to the position of Prime Minister. Things got worse when Haman managed to passed a law calling for the murder of all Jews in the Persian kingdom. This led to great sorrow on behalf of the Jews; they clothed sackcloth and ashes and mourned their downfall and they repented. As their material fortunes dwindled they recognized there errors and returned to their moral and ethical roots. The lowest point in the story is when Haman suffering from his own bout of intense hubris built a tall gallows to hang the Jewish leader Mordechai.
But when it seemed that things could not get worse for the Jews it got better. The uptrend began as Haman entered the king’s inner chamber to request permission to hang Mordechai. Instead of listening to his request the king asked Haman what should be done to a person he wanted to especially honor. In his arrogance Haman thought that the king was referring to him and he therefore gave proscribed an elaborate list of honors for such a person.
Whereupon the king said to Haman, "Hurry! Take the garment and the horse just as you have said, and do just so for Mordechai the Jew who sits at the king's gate. Do not leave out a thing from all that you suggested." Haman was forced to parade Mordechai though the streets of the capital declaring about Mordechai that, “This is what is to be done to the man whom the king wishes to honor.”
From that moment onwards the upturn had begun and salvation was well on its way. But a close reading of the story shows that the real turning point began as soon as Mordechai was able to gather the Jewish people together and get them to change their ways and repent. From that moment the situation began to slowly improve.
In the United States the years leading up to 2007 were plagued with intense conceitedness both on a national level and an individual level. Nationally the US was busy invading other countries and ignoring international partners. Individually households were borrowing and spending more than they could afford. This culminated in 2007 when, for the first time since 1929, collective household debt in the USA equaled total Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Since December 2007 the US economy (together with many other countries around the world) has suffered a severe economic downturn. Many have lost their homes and jobs and even the rich are in pain. There is no doubt that we have to hit a rock bottom before things turn around. Few people are willing to make predict where the bottom is. But based on the story of Purim I feel confident about the following prediction.
By having voted out an arrogant government we have already begun the process of repentance. But for us to reach see an upturn the public must own up to its mistakes and make changes as well. So far few people have had the nerve to blame the consumer for overstretching and buying more than they can afford. We need to start doing this. The average person must also learn to take responsibility. So here is my Purim prediction for the economy: the moment the consumer collectively repents and accepts partial blame for this mess will be the moment the tide changes and the upturn slowly begins.